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Mjølner vs Lillestrøm II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
10/2/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 23Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjølner56%
×Draw20%
Lillestrøm II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
2.35
Lillestrøm II
1.49

Mjølner creates 58% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Lillestrøm II
1.31

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Lillestrøm II
2.54

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Lillestrøm II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
76%
Mjølner or Lillestrøm II
80%
Draw or Lillestrøm II
44%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
35%
Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
90%
Mjølner 2+ goals
68%
Mjølner 3+ goals
41%
Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
77%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
44%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
70%
Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Lillestrøm II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Lillestrøm II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.35

Lillestrøm II attack 1.31 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mjølner scores more
56%
level
20%
Lillestrøm II scores more
24%

Mjølner at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Mjølner 5–1 Lillestrøm II

Mjølner beat Lillestrøm II 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Narvik Stadion in Narvik.