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Lillestrøm II vs Mjølner — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Mjølner
Mjølner
5/8/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 5Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lillestrøm II51%
×Draw21%
Mjølner28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrøm II
2.13
Mjølner
1.56

Lillestrøm II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lillestrøm II
2.08
Mjølner
1.57

allows per match

Lillestrøm II
1.54
Mjølner
2.17

finishing

Lillestrøm II+0.00on par
Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrøm II ↓

Mjølner →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lillestrøm II or draw
72%
Lillestrøm II or Mjølner
79%
Draw or Mjølner
49%

Winning margin

Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
30%
Mjølner wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
88%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
63%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
35%
Mjølner 1+ goals
79%
Mjølner 2+ goals
46%
Mjølner 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
64%
Mjølner (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrøm II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrøm II attack 2.08 + Mjølner defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.13

Mjølner attack 1.57 + Lillestrøm II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lillestrøm II scores more
51%
level
21%
Mjølner scores more
28%

Lillestrøm II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lillestrøm II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Lillestrøm II 4–2 Mjølner

Lillestrøm II beat Mjølner 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Strømmen Stadion in Strømmen.