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Mjølner vs Lørenskog — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lørenskog
Lørenskog
9/4/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 19Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mjølner38%
×Draw21%
Lørenskog41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
1.87
Lørenskog
1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Lørenskog
2.23

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Lørenskog
1.58

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Lørenskog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
59%
Mjølner or Lørenskog
79%
Draw or Lørenskog
62%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
20%
Lørenskog wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
85%
Mjølner 2+ goals
56%
Mjølner 3+ goals
29%
Lørenskog 1+ goals
86%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
58%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
48%
Lørenskog (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Lørenskog defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.87

Lørenskog attack 2.23 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mjølner scores more
38%
level
21%
Lørenskog scores more
41%

Lørenskog at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Mjølner 1–1 Lørenskog

Mjølner and Lørenskog drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Narvik Stadion in Narvik.