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Lørenskog vs Mjølner — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Lørenskog
Lørenskog
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mjølner
Mjølner
10/28/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 26Kurlandsparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Lørenskog66%
×Draw18%
Mjølner17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lørenskog
2.58
Mjølner
1.23

Lørenskog creates 110% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lørenskog
3.00
Mjølner
1.57

allows per match

Lørenskog
0.88
Mjølner
2.17

finishing

Lørenskog+0.00on par
Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lørenskog ↓

Mjølner →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Lørenskog or draw
83%
Lørenskog or Mjølner
82%
Draw or Mjølner
34%

Winning margin

Lørenskog wins by 2+
45%
Mjølner wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lørenskog 1+ goals
92%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
72%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
47%
Mjølner 1+ goals
71%
Mjølner 2+ goals
35%
Mjølner 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lørenskog (draw refunded)
80%
Mjølner (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lørenskog at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lørenskog attack 3.00 + Mjølner defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Mjølner attack 1.57 + Lørenskog defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lørenskog scores more
66%
level
18%
Mjølner scores more
17%

Lørenskog at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Lørenskog 1–0 Mjølner

Lørenskog beat Mjølner 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Kurlandsparken in Kurland.