Mitchelton 2–5 Ipswich Knights: Result & Stats

Mitchelton

FT

2 – 5

Ipswich Knights

3/14/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 1Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mitchelton38%

×Draw20%

Ipswich Knights42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MitcheltonExpected goals in this matchIpswich Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

2.27

Mitchelton

2.17

Ipswich Knights

2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 20 away

1.73

creates per match

1.95

2.59

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Mitchelton

1.73

Ipswich Knights

1.95

allows per match

Mitchelton

2.59

Ipswich Knights

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Ipswich Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw

58%

Mitchelton or Ipswich Knights

80%

Draw or Ipswich Knights

62%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+

21%

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals

89%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

64%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

36%

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals

90%

Ipswich Knights 2+ goals

66%

Ipswich Knights 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

48%

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Ipswich Knights away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ipswich Knights attack 1.95 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mitchelton scores more

38%

level

20%

Ipswich Knights scores more

42%

Ipswich Knights at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ipswich Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff