Ipswich Knights 2–2 Mitchelton: Result & Stats

Ipswich Knights

FT

2 – 2

Mitchelton

6/11/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 12Eric Evans Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ipswich Knights47%

×Draw21%

Mitchelton33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ipswich KnightsExpected goals in this matchMitchelton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.79

Ipswich Knights

2.16

Mitchelton

1.79

Ipswich Knights creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 43 away

1.65

creates per match

1.33

2.25

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Ipswich Knights

1.65

Mitchelton

1.33

allows per match

Ipswich Knights

2.25

Mitchelton

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich Knights ↓

Mitchelton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ipswich Knights or draw

67%

Ipswich Knights or Mitchelton

79%

Draw or Mitchelton

53%

Winning margin

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+

27%

Mitchelton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals

88%

Ipswich Knights 2+ goals

63%

Ipswich Knights 3+ goals

36%

Mitchelton 1+ goals

83%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

53%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)

59%

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich Knights at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich Knights attack 1.65 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.16

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ipswich Knights scores more

47%

level

21%

Mitchelton scores more

33%

Ipswich Knights at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ipswich Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff