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Mitchelton vs Ipswich — Queensland Premier League 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
7/21/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 19Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mitchelton34%
×Draw22%
Ipswich44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
1.64
Ipswich
1.89

Ipswich creates 15% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
1.73
Ipswich
1.19

allows per match

Mitchelton
2.59
Ipswich
1.55

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
56%
Mitchelton or Ipswich
78%
Draw or Ipswich
66%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
17%
Ipswich wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
81%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
49%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
23%
Ipswich 1+ goals
85%
Ipswich 2+ goals
56%
Ipswich 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
44%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Ipswich defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ipswich attack 1.19 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mitchelton scores more
34%
level
22%
Ipswich scores more
44%

Ipswich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Mitchelton 0–0 Ipswich

Mitchelton and Ipswich drew 0-0 in Queensland Premier League on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.