Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ipswich vs Mitchelton — Queensland Premier League 2026

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
4 – 2
Mitchelton
Mitchelton
4/20/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 8Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ipswich51%
×Draw22%
Mitchelton28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
2.03
Mitchelton
1.46

Ipswich creates 39% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.39
Mitchelton
1.33

allows per match

Ipswich
1.58
Mitchelton
2.67

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Mitchelton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
72%
Ipswich or Mitchelton
78%
Draw or Mitchelton
49%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
29%
Mitchelton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
87%
Ipswich 2+ goals
60%
Ipswich 3+ goals
33%
Mitchelton 1+ goals
77%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
43%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
65%
Mitchelton (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.39 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.03

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Ipswich defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ipswich scores more
51%
level
22%
Mitchelton scores more
28%

Ipswich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Ipswich 4–2 Mitchelton

Ipswich beat Mitchelton 4-2 in Queensland Premier League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.