Mitchelton 0–6 Eastern Suburbs: Result & Stats

Mitchelton

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Eastern Suburbs

Unknown 81', 64', 50', 30', 16', 7'

7/6/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 17Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mitchelton22%

×Draw18%

Eastern Suburbs60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MitcheltonExpected goals in this matchEastern Suburbs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.66

Mitchelton

1.59

Eastern Suburbs

2.66

Eastern Suburbs creates 67% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 11 away

1.73

creates per match

2.73

2.59

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Mitchelton

1.73

Eastern Suburbs

2.73

allows per match

Mitchelton

2.59

Eastern Suburbs

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Eastern Suburbs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw

40%

Mitchelton or Eastern Suburbs

82%

Draw or Eastern Suburbs

78%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+

10%

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals

80%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

47%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

21%

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

93%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

74%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

27%

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.73 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mitchelton scores more

22%

level

18%

Eastern Suburbs scores more

60%

Eastern Suburbs at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

16'

30'

50'

64'

81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff