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Eastern Suburbs vs Mitchelton — Queensland Premier League 2026

Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mitchelton
Mitchelton
4/23/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 6Nudgee Recreation Reserve Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Eastern Suburbs64%
×Draw17%
Mitchelton19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Suburbs
2.79
Mitchelton
1.50

Eastern Suburbs creates 86% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 43 away

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs
2.92
Mitchelton
1.33

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs
1.67
Mitchelton
2.67

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par
Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Mitchelton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw
81%
Eastern Suburbs or Mitchelton
83%
Draw or Mitchelton
36%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
43%
Mitchelton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
94%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
76%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
52%
Mitchelton 1+ goals
78%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
44%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
77%
Mitchelton (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.92 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.79

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more
64%
level
17%
Mitchelton scores more
19%

Eastern Suburbs at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Eastern Suburbs 4–2 Mitchelton

Eastern Suburbs beat Mitchelton 4-2 in Queensland Premier League on April 23, 2024.

The match was played at Nudgee Recreation Reserve Field 1 in Brisbane.