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Mississippi Brilla vs Blue Goose — USL League Two 2018

Mississippi Brilla
Mississippi Brilla
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Blue Goose
Blue Goose
7/6/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 16Arrow Field at Clinton High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mississippi Brilla76%
×Draw13%
Blue Goose11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mississippi Brilla
3.44
Blue Goose
1.33

Mississippi Brilla creates 159% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mississippi Brilla
2.05
Blue Goose
1.11

allows per match

Mississippi Brilla
1.56
Blue Goose
4.84

finishing

Mississippi Brilla+0.00on par
Blue Goose+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mississippi Brilla ↓

Blue Goose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Mississippi Brilla or draw
89%
Mississippi Brilla or Blue Goose
87%
Draw or Blue Goose
24%

Winning margin

Mississippi Brilla wins by 2+
57%
Blue Goose wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mississippi Brilla 1+ goals
97%
Mississippi Brilla 2+ goals
85%
Mississippi Brilla 3+ goals
65%
Blue Goose 1+ goals
74%
Blue Goose 2+ goals
38%
Blue Goose 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mississippi Brilla (draw refunded)
87%
Blue Goose (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mississippi Brilla at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Blue Goose away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mississippi Brilla attack 2.05 + Blue Goose defence 4.84 → ÷2 → 3.44

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Mississippi Brilla defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Mississippi Brilla scores more
76%
level
13%
Blue Goose scores more
11%

Mississippi Brilla at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Mississippi Brilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Mississippi Brilla 5–0 Blue Goose

Mississippi Brilla beat Blue Goose 5-0 in USL League Two on July 6, 2023.

The match was played at Arrow Field at Clinton High School in Clinton, Mississippi.