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Blue Goose vs Mississippi Brilla — USL League Two 2018

Blue Goose
Blue Goose
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mississippi Brilla
Mississippi Brilla
5/19/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 2Airline High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Blue Goose18%
×Draw18%
Mississippi Brilla65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Goose
1.29
Mississippi Brilla
2.58

Mississippi Brilla creates 100% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 41 away

creates per match

Blue Goose
1.11
Mississippi Brilla
1.71

allows per match

Blue Goose
3.44
Mississippi Brilla
1.46

finishing

Blue Goose+0.00on par
Mississippi Brilla+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Goose ↓

Mississippi Brilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Blue Goose or draw
35%
Blue Goose or Mississippi Brilla
82%
Draw or Mississippi Brilla
82%

Winning margin

Blue Goose wins by 2+
7%
Mississippi Brilla wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Blue Goose 1+ goals
72%
Blue Goose 2+ goals
37%
Blue Goose 3+ goals
14%
Mississippi Brilla 1+ goals
92%
Mississippi Brilla 2+ goals
72%
Mississippi Brilla 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Blue Goose (draw refunded)
21%
Mississippi Brilla (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Goose at home — creates 1.11, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

Mississippi Brilla away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Mississippi Brilla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mississippi Brilla attack 1.71 + Blue Goose defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Blue Goose scores more
18%
level
18%
Mississippi Brilla scores more
65%

Mississippi Brilla at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mississippi Brilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blue Goose vs Mississippi Brilla

Blue Goose and Mississippi Brilla drew 0-0 in USL League Two on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Airline High School Stadium in Bossier City, Louisiana.