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Mississippi Brilla vs Baton Rouge LA — USL League Two 2018

Mississippi Brilla
Mississippi Brilla
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Baton Rouge LA
Baton Rouge LA
6/23/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 46Arrow Field at Clinton High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mississippi Brilla64%
×Draw17%
Baton Rouge LA19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mississippi Brilla
2.83
Baton Rouge LA
1.51

Mississippi Brilla creates 87% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mississippi Brilla
2.05
Baton Rouge LA
1.46

allows per match

Mississippi Brilla
1.56
Baton Rouge LA
3.62

finishing

Mississippi Brilla+0.00on par
Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mississippi Brilla ↓

Baton Rouge LA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Mississippi Brilla or draw
81%
Mississippi Brilla or Baton Rouge LA
83%
Draw or Baton Rouge LA
36%

Winning margin

Mississippi Brilla wins by 2+
44%
Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mississippi Brilla 1+ goals
94%
Mississippi Brilla 2+ goals
77%
Mississippi Brilla 3+ goals
53%
Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals
78%
Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals
44%
Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mississippi Brilla (draw refunded)
77%
Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mississippi Brilla at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Baton Rouge LA away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mississippi Brilla attack 2.05 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.83

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.46 + Mississippi Brilla defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mississippi Brilla scores more
64%
level
17%
Baton Rouge LA scores more
19%

Mississippi Brilla at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mississippi Brilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mississippi Brilla vs Baton Rouge LA

Mississippi Brilla beat Baton Rouge LA 7-0 in USL League Two on June 23, 2022.

The match was played at Arrow Field at Clinton High School in Clinton, Mississippi.