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Baton Rouge LA vs Mississippi Brilla — USL League Two 2018

Baton Rouge LA
Baton Rouge LA
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mississippi Brilla
Mississippi Brilla
7/8/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 63Olympia Stadium Baton Rouge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baton Rouge LA15%
×Draw16%
Mississippi Brilla69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baton Rouge LA
1.23
Mississippi Brilla
2.78

Mississippi Brilla creates 126% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

creates per match

Baton Rouge LA
1.00
Mississippi Brilla
1.71

allows per match

Baton Rouge LA
3.85
Mississippi Brilla
1.46

finishing

Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par
Mississippi Brilla+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baton Rouge LA ↓

Mississippi Brilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Baton Rouge LA or draw
31%
Baton Rouge LA or Mississippi Brilla
84%
Draw or Mississippi Brilla
85%

Winning margin

Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+
6%
Mississippi Brilla wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals
71%
Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals
35%
Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals
13%
Mississippi Brilla 1+ goals
94%
Mississippi Brilla 2+ goals
76%
Mississippi Brilla 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)
18%
Mississippi Brilla (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baton Rouge LA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

Mississippi Brilla away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.00 + Mississippi Brilla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mississippi Brilla attack 1.71 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Baton Rouge LA scores more
15%
level
16%
Mississippi Brilla scores more
69%

Mississippi Brilla at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mississippi Brilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baton Rouge LA vs Mississippi Brilla

Mississippi Brilla beat Baton Rouge LA 2-0 in USL League Two on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at Olympia Stadium Baton Rouge in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.