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Missile vs Bouenguidi — Championnat D1 2022

Missile
Missile
FT
1 – 0
Bouenguidi
Bouenguidi
3/5/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 11Stade de L'INJS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Missile37%
×Draw30%
Bouenguidi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Missile
1.08
Bouenguidi
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

creates per match

Missile
0.88
Bouenguidi
0.75

allows per match

Missile
1.25
Bouenguidi
1.28

finishing

Missile+0.00on par
Bouenguidi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Missile ↓

Bouenguidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Missile or draw
67%
Missile or Bouenguidi
70%
Draw or Bouenguidi
63%

Winning margin

Missile wins by 2+
15%
Bouenguidi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Missile 1+ goals
66%
Missile 2+ goals
29%
Missile 3+ goals
10%
Bouenguidi 1+ goals
63%
Bouenguidi 2+ goals
26%
Bouenguidi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Missile (draw refunded)
53%
Bouenguidi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Missile at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Bouenguidi away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Missile attack 0.88 + Bouenguidi defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bouenguidi attack 0.75 + Missile defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Missile scores more
37%
level
30%
Bouenguidi scores more
33%

Missile at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Missile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Missile vs Bouenguidi

Missile beat Bouenguidi 1-0 in Championnat D1 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de L'INJS in Libreville.