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Bouenguidi vs Missile — Championnat D1 2022

Bouenguidi
Bouenguidi
CANC
15:00
Missile
Missile
5/7/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bouenguidi44%
×Draw28%
Missile28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouenguidi
1.29
Missile
0.98

Bouenguidi creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bouenguidi
0.73
Missile
1.00

allows per match

Bouenguidi
0.97
Missile
1.86

finishing

Bouenguidi+0.00on par
Missile+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouenguidi ↓

Missile →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bouenguidi or draw
72%
Bouenguidi or Missile
72%
Draw or Missile
56%

Winning margin

Bouenguidi wins by 2+
20%
Missile wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bouenguidi 1+ goals
72%
Bouenguidi 2+ goals
37%
Bouenguidi 3+ goals
14%
Missile 1+ goals
62%
Missile 2+ goals
26%
Missile 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)
61%
Missile (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouenguidi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Missile away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouenguidi attack 0.73 + Missile defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

Missile attack 1.00 + Bouenguidi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bouenguidi scores more
44%
level
28%
Missile scores more
28%

Bouenguidi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bouenguidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bouenguidi face Missile (Championnat D1)

Championnat D1 returns with Bouenguidi hosting Missile. Match starts May 7, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.