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Misr EL Makasa vs Ceramica Cleopatra — Premier League 2018

Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
11/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Cairo Military Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Misr EL Makasa32%
×Draw29%
Ceramica Cleopatra39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr EL Makasa
1.05
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.20

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 93 away

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa
0.94
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.12

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa
1.28
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.16

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par
Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw
61%
Misr EL Makasa or Ceramica Cleopatra
71%
Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra
68%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
12%
Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
65%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
28%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
9%
Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
70%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
34%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
45%
Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.12 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more
32%
level
29%
Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
39%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Misr EL Makasa vs Ceramica Cleopatra

Misr EL Makasa and Ceramica Cleopatra drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 4, 2021.

The match was played at Cairo Military Academy Stadium in Cairo.