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Ceramica Cleopatra vs Misr EL Makasa — Premier League 2018

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
5/22/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20New Suez Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra45%
×Draw27%
Misr EL Makasa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.35
Misr EL Makasa
1.00

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 35% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.33
Misr EL Makasa
0.87

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.14
Misr EL Makasa
1.37

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

Misr EL Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
72%
Ceramica Cleopatra or Misr EL Makasa
73%
Draw or Misr EL Makasa
55%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
21%
Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
74%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
39%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
15%
Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
63%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
26%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
62%
Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

Misr EL Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.87 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
45%
level
27%
Misr EL Makasa scores more
28%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceramica Cleopatra vs Misr EL Makasa

Ceramica Cleopatra beat Misr EL Makasa 4-1 in Premier League on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at New Suez Stadium in Suez.