Mirassol 0–0 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Mirassol

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani Campinas

10/21/2023

Serie B · Round 33Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mirassol52%

×Draw28%

Guarani Campinas19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirassolExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.69

Mirassol

1.34

Guarani Campinas

0.69

Mirassol creates 94% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 107 away

1.34

creates per match

0.91

0.47

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Mirassol

1.34

Guarani Campinas

0.91

allows per match

Mirassol

0.47

Guarani Campinas

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw

81%

Mirassol or Guarani Campinas

72%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

48%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+

25%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals

74%

Mirassol 2+ goals

39%

Mirassol 3+ goals

15%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

50%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

15%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)

73%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.47 · 38 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.34 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Guarani Campinas attack 0.91 + Mirassol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mirassol scores more

52%

level

28%

Guarani Campinas scores more

19%

Mirassol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Guilherme Biro

Mirassol · D

7.3

Match Events

46'

Régis← Bruninho

61'

Alan Santos

66'

Bruno José← Pablo Thomaz

74'

Fernandinho← Chico

74'

Julimar← Negueba

75'

Bernardo← Lucas Araújo

77'

Pegorari

80'

Cristian← Zé Roberto

80'

Camilo← Gabriel

81'

Iago Teles← João Victor

82'

Derek← Bruno Mendes

83'

Rodrigo Sam

90+5'

Guilherme Biro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirassolGuarani

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots9

3Corners6

16Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots9

1On Target1

9Off Target5

6Blocked3

6Inside Box3

10Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

451Total Passes373

361Accurate Passes286

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Mirassol vs Guarani Campinas

Mirassol and Guarani Campinas drew 0-0 in Serie B on October 21, 2023.

Mirassol controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, São Paulo.

Mirassol vs Guarani Campinas — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirassol vs Guarani Campinas