Guarani Campinas 1–0 Mirassol: Result & Stats

Guarani Campinas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mirassol

João Victor 45+3'

9/18/2024

Serie B · Round 27Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Guarani Campinas42%

×Draw31%

Mirassol26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.81

Guarani Campinas

1.11

Mirassol

0.81

Guarani Campinas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.97

creates per match

0.72

0.90

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

0.97

Mirassol

0.72

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.90

Mirassol

1.26

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Guarani Campinas-0.26scores less

Mirassol-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

74%

Guarani Campinas or Mirassol

69%

Draw or Mirassol

58%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

18%

Mirassol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

67%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

30%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

10%

Mirassol 1+ goals

56%

Mirassol 2+ goals

19%

Mirassol 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

62%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 7 matches

Mirassol away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 0.97 + Mirassol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mirassol attack 0.72 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

42%

level

31%

Mirassol scores more

26%

Guarani Campinas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

João Victor

Guarani Campinas · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

Danielzinho

31'

Marlon Maranhão← Anderson Leite

45+3'

João Victor

57'

Léo Gamalho← Chico

57'

Iury Castilho← Isaque

65'

Joao Victor

69'

Gabriel Bispo← Pierre

74'

Pacheco← João Victor

75'

Reinaldo← Heitor

75'

Lohan Freire← Caio Dantas

80'

80'

83'

84'

85'

89'

Alex Silva← Lucas Ramon

90+4'

Marlon Maranhao

90+5'

Negueba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuaraniMirassol

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots12

3Corners4

16Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target1

7Off Target8

0Blocked3

3Inside Box8

9Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

365Total Passes547

271Accurate Passes442

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 1–0 Mirassol

Guarani Campinas beat Mirassol 1-0 in Serie B on September 18, 2024.

Goals: João Victor (45+3').

Mirassol controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas, São Paulo.

Guarani Campinas vs Mirassol — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 1–0 Mirassol