Mirassol 4–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mirassol

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Coritiba

Luiz Otávio 52'

Júnior Brumado 47' (OG)

Dellatorre 36'

Fernandinho 24'

Jamerson 45+1'

11/6/2024

Serie B · Round 35Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mirassol49%

×Draw29%

Coritiba21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirassolExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.73

Mirassol

1.27

Coritiba

0.73

Mirassol creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 73 away

1.34

creates per match

1.00

0.47

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Mirassol

1.34

Coritiba

1.00

allows per match

Mirassol

0.47

Coritiba

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par

Coritiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw

79%

Mirassol or Coritiba

71%

Draw or Coritiba

51%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+

23%

Coritiba wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals

72%

Mirassol 2+ goals

36%

Mirassol 3+ goals

14%

Coritiba 1+ goals

52%

Coritiba 2+ goals

17%

Coritiba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)

70%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.47 · 38 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.34 + Coritiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coritiba attack 1.00 + Mirassol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mirassol scores more

49%

level

29%

Coritiba scores more

21%

Mirassol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Gabriel

Mirassol · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

Fernandinho↳ Gabriel

29'

Bruno MeloCard upgrade

30'

Vini Paulista

36'

Dellatorre↳ Gabriel

45+1'

Jamerson↳ Natanael

46'

Figueiredo← Matheus Frizzo

47'

Júnior BrumadoOwn goal

49'

Danielzinho

52'

Luiz Otávio

58'

Robson← Júnior Brumado

58'

Geovane Meurer← Josué

69'

Chico← Iury Castilho

70'

Rodrigo Andrade← Gabriel

75'

Bruno Matias← Rodrigo Andrade

81'

Léo Gamalho← Dellatorre

81'

Alex Silva← Zeca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirassolCoritiba

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots9

2.72Expected Goals (xG)0.42

5Corners7

6Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots9

7On Target5

6Off Target2

3Blocked2

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

445Total Passes480

385Accurate Passes420

87%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

6Offsides1

Serie B: Mirassol 4–1 Coritiba

Mirassol beat Coritiba 4-1 in Serie B on November 6, 2024.

Goals: Fernandinho (24'), Dellatorre (36'), Jamerson (45+1'), Júnior Brumado (47' o.g.), Luiz Otávio (52').

Coritiba controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, São Paulo.

Mirassol vs Coritiba — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mirassol 4–1 Coritiba