Coritiba 0–1 Mirassol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Coritiba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mirassol

João Victor 79'

7/20/2024

Serie B · Round 16Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Coritiba45%

×Draw30%

Mirassol24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.78

Coritiba

1.18

Mirassol

0.78

Coritiba creates 51% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 38 away

1.33

creates per match

0.87

0.70

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Coritiba

1.33

Mirassol

0.87

allows per match

Coritiba

0.70

Mirassol

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coritiba+0.00on par

Mirassol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

76%

Coritiba or Mirassol

70%

Draw or Mirassol

55%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

20%

Mirassol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

69%

Coritiba 2+ goals

33%

Coritiba 3+ goals

12%

Mirassol 1+ goals

54%

Mirassol 2+ goals

18%

Mirassol 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

65%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.70 · 73 matches

Mirassol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.33 + Mirassol defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mirassol attack 0.87 + Coritiba defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coritiba scores more

45%

level

30%

Mirassol scores more

24%

Coritiba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

João Victor

Mirassol · D

8.0

Match Events

24'

24'

28'

53'

59'

Éberth← Everton Morelli

62'

Marquinhos← Isaque

74'

Jhonny← Natanael

74'

Matheus Bianqui← Marcelo Benevenuto

77'

Matheus Bianqui

79'

João Victor↳ Danielzinho

86'

Jamerson← Rodrigo Gelado

86'

Figueiredo← Vini Paulista

86'

Bruno Matias← Chico

89'

Diego Quirino← Dellatorre

89'

Wanderson← Negueba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaMirassol

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots9

9Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots9

4On Target5

6Off Target3

9Blocked1

11Inside Box4

8Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

555Total Passes355

467Accurate Passes272

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1