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Mirassol vs ABC — Serie B 2026

Mirassol
Mirassol
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
ABC
ABC
Danielzinho 61'
Chico 47'
Kauan 45+3'
Felipe Garcia 82', 34'
6/25/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 13Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mirassol58%
×Draw27%
ABC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol
1.43
ABC
0.58

Mirassol creates 147% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

creates per match

Mirassol
1.34
ABC
0.70

allows per match

Mirassol
0.47
ABC
1.52

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw
85%
Mirassol or ABC
73%
Draw or ABC
42%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+
30%
ABC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals
76%
Mirassol 2+ goals
42%
Mirassol 3+ goals
17%
ABC 1+ goals
44%
ABC 2+ goals
12%
ABC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)
79%
ABC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.47 · 38 matches

ABC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.34 + ABC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

ABC attack 0.70 + Mirassol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mirassol scores more
58%
level
27%
ABC scores more
15%

Mirassol at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
DanielzinhoMirassolMirassol · M
9.0

Match Events

34'
Felipe Garcia↳ Thonny Anderson
45'
Simão
45+3'
Kauan
47'
Chico↳ Negueba
49'
Fernandinho
57'
Matheus Anjos← Thonny Anderson
57'
Júnior Todinho← Lucas Tocantins
59'
Afonso
61'
Danielzinho
62'
Wellington Reis
63'
Ramon← Wellington Reis
64'
Gedeílson← Welliton
66'
Alex Muralha
69'
Fernandinho
69'
Fernandinho
76'
Cristian← Kauan
76'
Maycon Douglas← Wallace
82'
Felipe Garcia↳ Júnior Todinho
83'
Vico← Chico
83'
Flávio← Leandro Vilela
90+5'
Cristian Renato
90+6'
Gedeilson
90+5'
Manoel← Negueba

Possession

56%Mirassol

Shots

21Mirassol

Pass accuracy

52%Mirassol

Statistics

MirassolABC
Overview
56%Possession44%
21Total Shots8
6Corners5
19Fouls21
Shots
21Total Shots8
14On Target5
3Off Target0
4Blocked3
10Inside Box5
11Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
413Total Passes327
342Accurate Passes249
83%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
Discipline
19Fouls21
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Serie B: Mirassol 3–2 ABC

Mirassol beat ABC 3-2 in Serie B on June 25, 2023.

Goals: Felipe Garcia (34', 82'), Kauan (45+3'), Chico (47'), Danielzinho (61').

Mirassol controlled possession (56%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, São Paulo.