ABC 1–0 Mirassol: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirassol

Wallyson 68'

6/12/2022

Serie C · Round 10Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC41%

×Draw28%

Mirassol31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

ABC

1.29

Mirassol

1.08

ABC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 23 away

1.35

creates per match

1.09

1.06

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Mirassol

1.09

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Mirassol

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Mirassol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

ABC or draw

69%

ABC or Mirassol

72%

Draw or Mirassol

59%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

19%

Mirassol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

72%

ABC 2+ goals

37%

ABC 3+ goals

14%

Mirassol 1+ goals

66%

Mirassol 2+ goals

29%

Mirassol 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

57%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Mirassol away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Mirassol defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mirassol attack 1.09 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ABC scores more

41%

level

28%

Mirassol scores more

31%

ABC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Richardson

31'

Camilo

56'

Wallyson← Kelvin

56'

Erick Varão← Walfrido

62'

Léo Duarte← Kauan

63'

Filipinho

68'

Wallyson

69'

Cristian Renato← Paulinho

69'

Matheus Oliveira← Everton Bala

75'

Fabio Lima

77'

Alyson← Fábio Lima

77'

Patrick← Ícaro

77'

Rhuan← Ivan

77'

Roberson← Camilo

86'

D. Porozo← Henan

88'

P. Pedro

ABC

Mirassol

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

56'▲Wallyson←▼Kelvin

56'▲Erick Varão←▼Walfrido

77'▲Alyson←▼Fábio Lima

77'▲Patrick←▼Ícaro

86'▲D. Porozo←▼Henan

ABC substitutes

WallysonVarãoAlysonPatrickPorozoNogueiraAlanGeovaniDantasNunesRochaThallyson

Manager: Ricardo Catalá

62'▲Léo Duarte←▼Kauan

69'▲Cristian Renato←▼Paulinho

69'▲Matheus Oliveira←▼Everton Bala

77'▲Rhuan←▼Ivan

77'▲Roberson←▼Camilo

Mirassol substitutes

DuarteRenatoOliveiraRhuanRobersonDodôRomárioMoreiraOctávioViniciusDiniz

Match Recap: ABC vs Mirassol

ABC beat Mirassol 1-0 in Serie C on June 12, 2022.

Goals: Wallyson (68').

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.

ABC vs Mirassol — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ABC vs Mirassol