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Mirassol U20 vs Fernandopolis U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fernandopolis U20
Fernandopolis U20
F. de Jesus 86', 64'
Kerlon 28'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10CT Mirassol Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mirassol U2076%
×Draw17%
Fernandopolis U207%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol U20
2.07
Fernandopolis U20
0.43

Mirassol U20 creates 381% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mirassol U20
1.74
Fernandopolis U20
0.00

allows per match

Mirassol U20
0.87
Fernandopolis U20
2.40

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par
Fernandopolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 69Yes: 3169%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

Fernandopolis U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw
93%
Mirassol U20 or Fernandopolis U20
83%
Draw or Fernandopolis U20
24%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
50%
Fernandopolis U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals
87%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
61%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
34%
Fernandopolis U20 1+ goals
35%
Fernandopolis U20 2+ goals
7%
Fernandopolis U20 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
92%
Fernandopolis U20 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Fernandopolis U20 away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + Fernandopolis U20 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.07

Fernandopolis U20 attack 0.00 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more
76%
level
17%
Fernandopolis U20 scores more
7%

Mirassol U20 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Kerlon
64'
F. de Jesus
86'
F. de Jesus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirassol U20 vs Fernandopolis U20

Mirassol U20 beat Fernandopolis U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: Kerlon (28'), F. de Jesus (64', 86').

The match was played at CT Mirassol Futebol Clube in Mirassol, São Paulo.