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Fernandopolis U20 vs Mirassol U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Fernandopolis U20
Fernandopolis U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Cláudio Rodante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fernandopolis U2025%
×Draw22%
Mirassol U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernandopolis U20
1.27
Mirassol U20
1.96

Mirassol U20 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Fernandopolis U20
1.00
Mirassol U20
1.91

allows per match

Fernandopolis U20
2.00
Mirassol U20
1.55

finishing

Fernandopolis U20+0.00on par
Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernandopolis U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fernandopolis U20 or draw
47%
Fernandopolis U20 or Mirassol U20
78%
Draw or Mirassol U20
75%

Winning margin

Fernandopolis U20 wins by 2+
10%
Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Fernandopolis U20 1+ goals
72%
Fernandopolis U20 2+ goals
36%
Fernandopolis U20 3+ goals
14%
Mirassol U20 1+ goals
86%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
58%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Fernandopolis U20 (draw refunded)
32%
Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernandopolis U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernandopolis U20 attack 1.00 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Fernandopolis U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fernandopolis U20 scores more
25%
level
22%
Mirassol U20 scores more
53%

Mirassol U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernandopolis U20 vs Mirassol U20

Mirassol U20 beat Fernandopolis U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Cláudio Rodante in Fernandópolis, São Paulo.