Mirandes 2–1 Malaga: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Malaga

C. Fernandez 87' (pen), 22'

A. Ochoa 59'

2/2/2026

Segunda División · Round 24Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes27%

×Draw23%

Malaga50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.79

Mirandes

1.24

Malaga

1.79

Malaga creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

2.14

1.43

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Malaga

1.25

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

50%

Mirandes or Malaga

77%

Draw or Malaga

73%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Malaga wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

71%

Mirandes 2+ goals

35%

Mirandes 3+ goals

13%

Malaga 1+ goals

83%

Malaga 2+ goals

53%

Malaga 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

35%

Malaga (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Malaga attack 2.14 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mirandes scores more

27%

level

23%

Malaga scores more

50%

Malaga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Hernandez

Mirandes · M

8.2

Match Events

22'

C. Fernandez↳ A. Houary

30'

Pablo Pérez

38'

Selvi Clúa

46'

A. Ochoa← R. Rodriguez

52'

Rafael Bauzà

55'

T. Helguera← R. Bauza

56'

Aarón Ochoa

59'

A. Ochoa

63'

J. Munoz← A. Nino

79'

A. Martin Luis← A. Houary

82'

Carlos Puga

82'

E. Jauregi← Chupe

82'

Juanpe← D. Lorenzo

83'

Einar Galilea

87'

C. FernandezPenalty

90+2'

Juan Palomares

90+1'

M. Pascual← J. Hernandez

90'

A. Pica← T. Tamarit

90+2'

J. Dorrio← I. Merino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesMalaga

Overview

33%Possession67%

21Total Shots16

2.16Expected Goals (xG)1.36

7Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots16

5On Target3

12Off Target5

4Blocked8

12Inside Box9

9Outside Box7

Passing

33%Possession67%

269Total Passes559

205Accurate Passes499

76%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Malaga

Mirandes beat Malaga 2-1 in Segunda División on February 2, 2026.

Goals: C. Fernandez (22', 87' pen), A. Ochoa (59').

Malaga controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 21.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Malaga