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Malaga vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
E. Galilea 90'
A. Nino 33', 31'
G. Petit 79'
A. Mari 59'
11/23/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Malaga45%
×Draw28%
Mirandes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.32
Mirandes
0.96

Malaga creates 38% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 149 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
73%
Malaga or Mirandes
72%
Draw or Mirandes
55%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
21%
Mirandes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
73%
Malaga 2+ goals
38%
Malaga 3+ goals
15%
Mirandes 1+ goals
62%
Mirandes 2+ goals
25%
Mirandes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
62%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malaga scores more
45%
level
28%
Mirandes scores more
27%

Malaga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. NinoMalagaMalaga · F
9.3

Match Events

-5'
Juan Palomares
31'
A. Nino↳ C. Dotor
33'
A. Nino
41'
T. Tamarit← H. Novoa Ramos
45+4'
Sergio Postigo
45+3'
Juan Gutiérrez
46'
A. Cardero← M. Pascual
46'
S. El Jebari← A. Martin Luis
49'
Alberto Mari
54'
R. Rodriguez← C. Dotor
59'
A. Mari↳ P. Perez
63'
I. Cordoba← S. Postigo
70'
J. Lobete← J. Munoz
70'
Chupe← A. Nino
73'
Victor Garcia Marin
75'
G. Petit← A. Mari
79'
G. Petit↳ S. El Jebari
83'
E. Jauregi← D. Lorenzo
83'
H. Abaida← D. Larrubia
90'
E. Galilea

Possession

61%Malaga

Shots

18Malaga

Pass accuracy

53%Malaga

Statistics

MalagaMirandes
Overview
61%Possession39%
18Total Shots14
2Corners1
19Fouls17
Shots
18Total Shots14
11On Target6
4Off Target3
3Blocked5
11Inside Box9
7Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
503Total Passes313
433Accurate Passes240
86%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves8
Discipline
19Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Malaga vs Mirandes

Malaga beat Mirandes 3-2 in Segunda División on November 23, 2025.

Goals: A. Nino (31', 33'), A. Mari (59'), G. Petit (79'), E. Galilea (90').

Malaga controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Malaga.