Mirandes 1–0 Malaga: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

Dani Vivian 73'

3/1/2021

Segunda División · Round 27Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes27%

×Draw23%

Malaga50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.79

Mirandes

1.24

Malaga

1.79

Malaga creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

2.14

1.43

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Malaga

1.25

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

50%

Mirandes or Malaga

77%

Draw or Malaga

73%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Malaga wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

71%

Mirandes 2+ goals

35%

Mirandes 3+ goals

13%

Malaga 1+ goals

83%

Malaga 2+ goals

53%

Malaga 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

35%

Malaga (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Malaga attack 2.14 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mirandes scores more

27%

level

23%

Malaga scores more

50%

Malaga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Dani Vivian

Mirandes · D

8.3

Match Events

45'

Carlos Julio Martinez

61'

Álex López← Víctor Meseguer

63'

Näis Djouahra

66'

Caye Quintana← P. Chavarría

67'

Alejandro López

71'

Ramón Enríquez← Luis Muñoz

73'

Dani Vivian↳ Víctor Gómez

75'

Daniel VivianPenalty confirmed

79'

Genaro Rodríguez← N. Djouahra

81'

Julio Martínez← J. Mejías

82'

Orlando Sá← Jozabed

82'

Jairo Samperio← Joaquín Muñoz

87'

Orlando Sá

90'

Mario Barco← Cristo González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesMalaga

Overview

56%Possession44%

4Total Shots14

3Corners9

13Fouls13

Shots

4Total Shots14

1On Target3

1Off Target7

2Blocked4

2Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

406Total Passes298

309Accurate Passes200

76%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Segunda División: Mirandes 1–0 Malaga

Mirandes beat Malaga 1-0 in Segunda División on March 1, 2021.

Goals: Dani Vivian (73').

Mirandes controlled possession (56%) and registered 4 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mirandes 1–0 Malaga