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Mirandes vs Leganes — Segunda División 2018

Mirandes
Mirandes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leganes
Leganes
2/25/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 29Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Mirandes41%
×Draw28%
Leganes31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandes
1.25
Leganes
1.04

Mirandes creates 20% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 106 away

creates per match

Mirandes
1.42
Leganes
0.97

allows per match

Mirandes
1.11
Leganes
1.09

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par
Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Leganes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw
69%
Mirandes or Leganes
72%
Draw or Leganes
59%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+
18%
Leganes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals
71%
Mirandes 2+ goals
36%
Mirandes 3+ goals
13%
Leganes 1+ goals
65%
Leganes 2+ goals
28%
Leganes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)
57%
Leganes (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 149 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Leganes attack 0.97 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mirandes scores more
41%
level
28%
Leganes scores more
31%

Mirandes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Mirandes 0–0 Leganes

Mirandes and Leganes drew 0-0 in Segunda División on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.