Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leganes vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Leganes
Leganes
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
3/17/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 31Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Leganes47%
×Draw27%
Mirandes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganes
1.38
Mirandes
0.94

Leganes creates 47% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 148 away

creates per match

Leganes
1.27
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Leganes
0.87
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Leganes+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leganes or draw
74%
Leganes or Mirandes
73%
Draw or Mirandes
53%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+
23%
Mirandes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals
75%
Leganes 2+ goals
40%
Leganes 3+ goals
16%
Mirandes 1+ goals
61%
Mirandes 2+ goals
24%
Mirandes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)
65%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 106 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.27 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Leganes defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leganes scores more
47%
level
27%
Mirandes scores more
26%

Leganes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Leganes 4–0 Mirandes

Leganes beat Mirandes 4-0 in Segunda División on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque in Leganés.