Mirandes 1–2 Leganes: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leganes

Brugui 22'

Javi Hernández 79'

Jon Bautista 9'

9/26/2021

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Mirandes41%

×Draw28%

Leganes31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchLeganes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.04

Mirandes

1.25

Leganes

1.04

Mirandes creates 20% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 106 away

1.42

creates per match

0.97

1.11

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Leganes

0.97

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Leganes

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Leganes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

69%

Mirandes or Leganes

72%

Draw or Leganes

59%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

18%

Leganes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

71%

Mirandes 2+ goals

36%

Mirandes 3+ goals

13%

Leganes 1+ goals

65%

Leganes 2+ goals

28%

Leganes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

57%

Leganes (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Leganes attack 0.97 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mirandes scores more

41%

level

28%

Leganes scores more

31%

Mirandes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Javi Hernández

Leganes · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Jon Bautista↳ E. Bárcenas

22'

Brugui↳ Imanol García de Albéniz

53'

Lazar Ranđelović

57'

Álex López← Oriol Rey

64'

Simón Moreno← Iñigo Vicente

64'

H. Hassan← Brugui

68'

C. Doukouré← Fede Vico

68'

José Arnáiz← L. Ranđelović

73'

Sergi Palencia← Bustinza

74'

Cheick Doukouré

79'

Javi Hernández

83'

Alejandro Marqués← Víctor Meseguer

83'

Sergio Carreira← Iago López

90+4'

Haissem Hassan

90+4'

Javier Hernandez

90+3'

Sergio González← Rubén Pardo

90+3'

Borja Garcés← Jon Bautista

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesLeganes

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots13

3Corners5

13Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target4

4Off Target6

3Blocked3

7Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

473Total Passes395

379Accurate Passes298

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3