Mirandes 3–3 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Las Palmas

Raúl García 90', 45+6'

Manu García 88'

Jonathan Viera 58'

Sandro Ramírez 55'

Álvaro Jiménez 27'

10/1/2022

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mirandes39%

×Draw26%

Las Palmas35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

Mirandes

1.38

Las Palmas

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.23

creates per match

1.15

1.43

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Las Palmas

1.15

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Las Palmas

1.52

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Las Palmas-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

65%

Mirandes or Las Palmas

74%

Draw or Las Palmas

61%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

18%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

40%

Mirandes 3+ goals

16%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

72%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

37%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

53%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Las Palmas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Las Palmas attack 1.15 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mirandes scores more

39%

level

26%

Las Palmas scores more

35%

Mirandes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Raúl García

Mirandes · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

Álvaro Lemos← Saúl Coco

27'

Álvaro Jiménez↳ Óscar Clemente

34'

Sandro Ramírez← Cardona

38'

Eric Curbelo

42'

Álvaro Jiménez

45+3'

Álex Martín

45+8'

Álex MartínGoal confirmed

45+6'

Raúl García↳ Marcos Paulo

46'

Benito Ramírez← Álvaro Jiménez

55'

Sandro Ramírez↳ Jonathan Viera

58'

Jonathan Viera↳ Sergi Cardona

59'

Nico Serrano← Óscar Pinchi

59'

Beñat Prados← Javi Serrano

65'

Juanlu Sánchez← Raúl Parra

65'

Fabio González← E. Loiodice

65'

Alberto Moleiro← Sandro Ramírez

68'

Omenuke Mfulu

71'

Sergi Cardona

75'

Nico Serrano

77'

Manu García← Oriol Rey

77'

S. Mráz← Roberto López

80'

Manu García

88'

Manu García↳ Marcos Paulo

90'

Raúl García↳ Nico Serrano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesLas

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots8

3Corners2

22Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots8

4On Target4

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box8

4Outside Box0

Passing

43%Possession57%

407Total Passes549

311Accurate Passes441

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1