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Las Palmas vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Las Palmas
Las Palmas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
12/8/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Las Palmas49%
×Draw26%
Mirandes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas
1.48
Mirandes
0.95

Las Palmas creates 56% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 149 away

creates per match

Las Palmas
1.47
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Las Palmas
0.89
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw
76%
Las Palmas or Mirandes
74%
Draw or Mirandes
51%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+
25%
Mirandes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals
77%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
43%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
19%
Mirandes 1+ goals
61%
Mirandes 2+ goals
25%
Mirandes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)
67%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Las Palmas scores more
49%
level
26%
Mirandes scores more
24%

Las Palmas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Sergio BarciaLas PalmasLas Palmas · D
8.3

Match Events

34'
Alberto Mari
38'
Dinko Horkaš
38'
Dinko HorkašCard upgrade
40'
J. Caro← J. Viera
45'
Rafael BauzaPenalty cancelled
50'
Fernando Medrano
57'
G. Petit← A. Mari
57'
S. El Jebari← F. Medrano
64'
I. Gil← Pejino
64'
Viti← M. Fuster
69'
A. Cardero← I. Varela
81'
A. Martin Luis← T. Tamarit
86'
Marvin Park
86'
Iker Cordoba
88'
Jese← M. Lukovic

Possession

47%Las

Shots

10Las

Pass accuracy

49%Las

Statistics

LasMirandes
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots15
0.76Expected Goals (xG)0.99
2Corners3
13Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots15
3On Target4
4Off Target3
3Blocked8
6Inside Box6
4Outside Box9
Passing
47%Possession53%
378Total Passes412
301Accurate Passes339
80%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Segunda División: Las Palmas 0–0 Mirandes

Las Palmas and Mirandes drew 0-0 in Segunda División on December 8, 2025.

Mirandes controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.