Mirandes 2–0 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Las Palmas

E. Jirka 90+2'

Cristo González 31'

1/31/2021

Segunda División · Round 23Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mirandes39%

×Draw26%

Las Palmas35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

Mirandes

1.38

Las Palmas

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.23

creates per match

1.15

1.43

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Las Palmas

1.15

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Las Palmas

1.52

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Las Palmas-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

65%

Mirandes or Las Palmas

74%

Draw or Las Palmas

61%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

18%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

40%

Mirandes 3+ goals

16%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

72%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

37%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

53%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Las Palmas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Las Palmas attack 1.15 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mirandes scores more

39%

level

26%

Las Palmas scores more

35%

Mirandes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Javi Muñoz

Mirandes · M

7.3

Match Events

25'

Daniel Vivian

31'

Cristo González↳ Álex López

32'

Cristo González

34'

Alejandro López

68'

Dani Castellano

70'

Pau Miguélez← Edu Espiau

74'

Genaro Rodríguez← Álex López

80'

E. Jirka← N. Djouahra

82'

Claudio← Maikel Mesa

84'

Erik Jirka

85'

Óscar Clemente← Benito Ramírez

86'

Pablo Trigueros← Cristo González

86'

Sergio Moreno← Pablo Martínez

88'

Raúl Lizoain

88'

Alejandro Díez Salomón

90+2'

E. Jirka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesLas

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots9

5Corners3

21Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target1

3Off Target8

5Blocked0

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

291Total Passes473

194Accurate Passes373

67%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

3Offsides5