Mirandes 1–0 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Amorebieta

Gabri Martínez 62'

6/2/2024

Segunda División · Round 42Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mirandes53%

×Draw25%

Amorebieta22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.93

Mirandes

1.58

Amorebieta

0.93

Mirandes creates 70% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 42 away

1.42

creates per match

0.74

1.11

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Amorebieta

0.74

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Amorebieta

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

78%

Mirandes or Amorebieta

75%

Draw or Amorebieta

47%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

28%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

79%

Mirandes 2+ goals

47%

Mirandes 3+ goals

21%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

61%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

24%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

70%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Amorebieta defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.58

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mirandes scores more

53%

level

25%

Amorebieta scores more

22%

Mirandes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Pablo Tomeo

Mirandes · D

7.5

Match Events

-5'

-5'

21'

40'

56'

Eneko Jauregi← Jorge Mier

61'

Diogo Verdasca← Tachi

62'

Gabri Martínez↳ Carlos Martín

68'

Daniel Lasure

71'

R. Edwards← Erik Morán

72'

D. Luna← Gabri Martínez

72'

J. Locadia← Iker Unzueta

80'

Rayco Rodríguez← Daniel Lasure

80'

J. Yriarte← Unai Bustinza

86'

A. La Gumina← Javi Martón

86'

Álvaro Sanz← Alberto Reina

86'

David Vicente← Carlos Martín

90+1'

Josep Gayá

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesAmorebieta

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots11

4Corners0

11Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target2

5Off Target5

2Blocked4

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

342Total Passes478

255Accurate Passes375

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Amorebieta

Mirandes beat Amorebieta 1-0 in Segunda División on June 2, 2024.

Goals: Gabri Martínez (62').

Amorebieta controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Amorebieta — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Amorebieta