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Amorebieta vs Mirandes — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mirandes
Mirandes
L. Quintero 81'
E. Jauregi 65'
R. Edwards 51'
G. Martinez 13'
7/15/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Amorebieta52%
×Draw27%
Mirandes21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.44
Mirandes
0.80

Amorebieta creates 80% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.67
Mirandes
0.60

allows per match

Amorebieta
1.00
Mirandes
1.20

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
79%
Amorebieta or Mirandes
73%
Draw or Mirandes
48%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
26%
Mirandes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
76%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
42%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
18%
Mirandes 1+ goals
55%
Mirandes 2+ goals
19%
Mirandes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
71%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Mirandes away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.67 + Mirandes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mirandes attack 0.60 + Amorebieta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Amorebieta scores more
52%
level
27%
Mirandes scores more
21%

Amorebieta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
G. Martinez
51'
R. Edwards
65'
E. Jauregi
81'
L. Quintero

Statistics

AmorebietaMirandes
Overview
2Corners2

Match Recap: Amorebieta vs Mirandes

Amorebieta beat Mirandes 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2023.

Goals: G. Martinez (13'), R. Edwards (51'), E. Jauregi (65'), L. Quintero (81').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe in Amorebieta-Echano.