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Mirandés II vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Lucas Silva 56'
11/23/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mirandés II53%
×Draw26%
La Bañeza21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.51
La Bañeza
0.83

Mirandés II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
79%
Mirandés II or La Bañeza
74%
Draw or La Bañeza
47%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
27%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
78%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
44%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
19%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
56%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
20%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
72%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.51

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mirandés II scores more
53%
level
26%
La Bañeza scores more
21%

Mirandés II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Ibra← Hassane Adamou
56'
Lucas Silva
58'
David Borge← Pablo Martínez
67'
Rodri← Zunzu
79'
Marcos Ordás← Lorento
83'
Rony← Pablo González
85'
Adrián Gabarri← Ander Estefano
Mirandés
La
Raúl Bayón
Bayón
Pablo González
▼
González
Mateo
Mateo
Sampedro
Sampedro
Viti
Viti
Aitor García
García
Samuel Mayo
Mayo
Hugo Murciego
Murciego
Lorento
▼
Lorento
Ricardo
Ricardo
Pablo Martínez
▼
Martínez
E. Nwenyi
Nwenyi
Alberto González
González
Lombraña
Lombraña
Unai Ranero
Ranero
Badia
Badia
Toura Savane
Savane
Hassane Adamou
▼
Adamou
Jonay Martínez
Martínez
Zunzu
▼
Zunzu
Lucas Silva
⚽
Silva
Ander Estefano
▼
Estefano
Roberto Sáez
Manager: Roberto Sáez
46'▲Ibra←▼Hassane Adamou
67'▲Rodri←▼Zunzu
85'▲Adrián Gabarri←▼Ander Estefano

Mirandés II substitutes

IbraRodriGabarri
José Román
Manager: José Román
58'▲David Borge←▼Pablo Martínez
79'▲Marcos Ordás←▼Lorento
83'▲Rony←▼Pablo González

La Bañeza substitutes

BorgeOrdásRony

Match Recap: Mirandés II vs La Bañeza

Mirandés II beat La Bañeza 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 23, 2019.

Goals: Lucas Silva (56').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.