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La Bañeza vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Bañeza
La Bañeza
CANC
00:00
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 37Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza34%
×Draw27%
Mirandés II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Bañeza
1.19
Mirandés II
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 112 away

creates per match

La Bañeza
1.03
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

La Bañeza
1.50
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw
62%
La Bañeza or Mirandés II
73%
Draw or Mirandés II
66%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+
14%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals
70%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
33%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
12%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
72%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
36%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)
47%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

La Bañeza scores more
34%
level
27%
Mirandés II scores more
38%

Mirandés II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: La Bañeza host Mirandés II

April 19, 2020: La Bañeza take on Mirandés II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

La Bañeza host Mirandés II at Estadio La Llanera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.