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Mirandés II vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Mirandés II53%
×Draw27%
Colegios Diocesanos20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.46
Colegios Diocesanos
0.78

Mirandés II creates 87% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 66 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
80%
Mirandés II or Colegios Diocesanos
73%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
47%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
27%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
77%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
43%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
18%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
54%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
18%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
73%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mirandés II scores more
53%
level
27%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
20%

Mirandés II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandés II vs Colegios Diocesanos

Mirandés II and Colegios Diocesanos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.