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Colegios Diocesanos vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
4/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos33%
×Draw28%
Mirandés II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.14
Mirandés II
1.25

Mirandés II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 112 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
61%
Colegios Diocesanos or Mirandés II
72%
Draw or Mirandés II
67%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
14%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
68%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
32%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
11%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
71%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
36%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
46%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
33%
level
28%
Mirandés II scores more
39%

Mirandés II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Colegios Diocesanos 3–1 Mirandés II

Colegios Diocesanos beat Mirandés II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.