Mirandés II 0–1 Atlético Astorga: Result & Stats

Mirandés II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Astorga

3/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 26Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Mirandés II35%

×Draw29%

Atlético Astorga36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mirandés IIExpected goals in this matchAtlético Astorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.13

Mirandés II

1.11

Atlético Astorga

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

1.34

creates per match

1.27

0.99

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Mirandés II

1.34

Atlético Astorga

1.27

allows per match

Mirandés II

0.99

Atlético Astorga

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Atlético Astorga →

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw

64%

Mirandés II or Atlético Astorga

71%

Draw or Atlético Astorga

65%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+

14%

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals

67%

Mirandés II 2+ goals

30%

Mirandés II 3+ goals

10%

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

68%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

31%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)

49%

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mirandés II scores more

35%

level

29%

Atlético Astorga scores more

36%

Atlético Astorga at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandés II vs Atlético Astorga

Atlético Astorga beat Mirandés II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandés II vs Atlético Astorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mirandés II vs Atlético Astorga