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Atlético Astorga vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Atlético Astorga51%
×Draw26%
Mirandés II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Astorga
1.51
Mirandés II
0.91

Atlético Astorga creates 66% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 112 away

creates per match

Atlético Astorga
1.68
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Atlético Astorga
0.77
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw
77%
Atlético Astorga or Mirandés II
74%
Draw or Mirandés II
49%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
26%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
19%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
60%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
23%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
69%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more
51%
level
26%
Mirandés II scores more
23%

Atlético Astorga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Astorga 0 – 1 Mirandés II

Mirandés II beat Atlético Astorga 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.