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Miramar vs Cerro Largo — Segunda División 2026

Miramar
Miramar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
7/31/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Parque Luis Méndez Piana (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Miramar36%
×Draw31%
Cerro Largo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miramar
1.03
Cerro Largo
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 14 away

creates per match

Miramar
1.27
Cerro Largo
0.93

allows per match

Miramar
1.05
Cerro Largo
0.79

finishing

Miramar+0.00on par
Cerro Largo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miramar ↓

Cerro Largo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Miramar or draw
66%
Miramar or Cerro Largo
69%
Draw or Cerro Largo
64%

Winning margin

Miramar wins by 2+
14%
Cerro Largo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Miramar 1+ goals
64%
Miramar 2+ goals
28%
Miramar 3+ goals
9%
Cerro Largo 1+ goals
63%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
26%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Miramar (draw refunded)
52%
Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miramar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.05 · 37 matches

Cerro Largo away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miramar attack 1.27 + Cerro Largo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.03

Cerro Largo attack 0.93 + Miramar defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Miramar scores more
36%
level
31%
Cerro Largo scores more
34%

Miramar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Miramar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miramar vs Cerro Largo

Miramar and Cerro Largo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 31, 2018.

The match was played at Parque Luis Méndez Piana (Montevideo).