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Cerro Largo vs Miramar — Segunda División 2026

Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Miramar
Miramar
3/3/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla (Melo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cerro Largo50%
×Draw27%
Miramar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Largo
1.43
Miramar
0.86

Cerro Largo creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cerro Largo
1.64
Miramar
1.30

allows per match

Cerro Largo
0.43
Miramar
1.22

finishing

Cerro Largo+0.00on par
Miramar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Largo ↓

Miramar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cerro Largo or draw
77%
Cerro Largo or Miramar
73%
Draw or Miramar
50%

Winning margin

Cerro Largo wins by 2+
25%
Miramar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cerro Largo 1+ goals
76%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
42%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
17%
Miramar 1+ goals
58%
Miramar 2+ goals
21%
Miramar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
69%
Miramar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Largo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.43 · 14 matches

Miramar away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Largo attack 1.64 + Miramar defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.43

Miramar attack 1.30 + Cerro Largo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cerro Largo scores more
50%
level
27%
Miramar scores more
23%

Cerro Largo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cerro Largo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cerro Largo 4 – 0 Miramar

Cerro Largo beat Miramar 4-0 in Segunda División on March 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla (Melo).