Miramar 2–2 Cerrito: Result & Stats

Miramar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cerrito

D. Olivera 55'

A. González 32'

L. Olavarría 38'

A. Miranda 3'

6/18/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 7Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Miramar46%

×Draw28%

Cerrito26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiramarExpected goals in this matchCerrito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.96

Miramar

1.36

Cerrito

0.96

Miramar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 26 away

0.92

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Miramar

0.92

Cerrito

1.00

allows per match

Miramar

0.92

Cerrito

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miramar+0.00on par

Cerrito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miramar ↓

Cerrito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Miramar or draw

74%

Miramar or Cerrito

72%

Draw or Cerrito

54%

Winning margin

Miramar wins by 2+

22%

Cerrito wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Miramar 1+ goals

74%

Miramar 2+ goals

39%

Miramar 3+ goals

16%

Cerrito 1+ goals

62%

Cerrito 2+ goals

25%

Cerrito 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Miramar (draw refunded)

63%

Cerrito (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miramar at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Cerrito away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miramar attack 0.92 + Cerrito defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cerrito attack 1.00 + Miramar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Miramar scores more

46%

level

28%

Cerrito scores more

26%

Miramar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Miramar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

32'

38'

42'

46'

E. Ribeiro← L. Olavarría

55'

62'

63'

69'

74'

74'

G. Roselló← E. Cuello

80'

L. Pazos← A. Olivera

87'

G. Pereira← Á. Vázquez

Miramar

Cerrito

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Medina

69'▲B. Vargas←▼N. Soria

80'▲L. Pazos←▼A. Olivera

87'▲G. Pereira←▼Á. Vázquez

Miramar substitutes

VargasPazosPereiraAñascoCruzSalazarSiriAmestoyGonzálezPintos

Manager: R. Marcenaro

46'▲E. Ribeiro←▼L. Olavarría

62'▲G. Díaz←▼A. Pinheiro

63'▲Á. Llanes←▼G. Poncet

74'▲A. Peña←▼E. Escobar

74'▲G. Roselló←▼E. Cuello

Cerrito substitutes

RibeiroDíazLlanesPeñaRosellóArandaBuffaCajesVistaMonserrat