Cerrito 1–1 Miramar: Result & Stats

Cerrito

FT

1 – 1

Miramar

8/18/2018

Segunda División · Round 17Parque Maracaná (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cerrito29%

×Draw27%

Miramar44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CerritoExpected goals in this matchMiramar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.35

Cerrito

1.04

Miramar

1.35

Miramar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 26 away

1.23

creates per match

1.42

1.28

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Cerrito

1.23

Miramar

1.42

allows per match

Cerrito

1.28

Miramar

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerrito+0.00on par

Miramar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerrito ↓

Miramar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cerrito or draw

56%

Cerrito or Miramar

73%

Draw or Miramar

71%

Winning margin

Cerrito wins by 2+

11%

Miramar wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cerrito 1+ goals

65%

Cerrito 2+ goals

28%

Cerrito 3+ goals

9%

Miramar 1+ goals

74%

Miramar 2+ goals

39%

Miramar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cerrito (draw refunded)

40%

Miramar (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerrito at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

Miramar away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerrito attack 1.23 + Miramar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Miramar attack 1.42 + Cerrito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cerrito scores more

29%

level

27%

Miramar scores more

44%

Miramar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Miramar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff