Miramar 2–2 Albion FC: Result & Stats

Miramar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Albion FC

5/6/2018

Segunda División · Round 9Parque Luis Méndez Piana (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Miramar38%

×Draw29%

Albion FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiramarExpected goals in this matchAlbion FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

Miramar

1.19

Albion FC

1.08

Miramar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 95 away

1.27

creates per match

1.12

1.05

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Miramar

1.27

Albion FC

1.12

allows per match

Miramar

1.05

Albion FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miramar+0.00on par

Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miramar ↓

Albion FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Miramar or draw

67%

Miramar or Albion FC

71%

Draw or Albion FC

62%

Winning margin

Miramar wins by 2+

16%

Albion FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Miramar 1+ goals

70%

Miramar 2+ goals

33%

Miramar 3+ goals

12%

Albion FC 1+ goals

66%

Albion FC 2+ goals

29%

Albion FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Miramar (draw refunded)

54%

Albion FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miramar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.05 · 37 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.11 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miramar attack 1.27 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Albion FC attack 1.12 + Miramar defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Miramar scores more

38%

level

29%

Albion FC scores more

33%

Miramar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Miramar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff