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Albion FC vs Miramar — Segunda División 2026

Albion FC
Albion FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Miramar
Miramar
12/3/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Contador José Pedro Damiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Albion FC37%
×Draw28%
Miramar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion FC
1.23
Miramar
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 37 away

creates per match

Albion FC
1.23
Miramar
1.30

allows per match

Albion FC
1.05
Miramar
1.22

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par
Miramar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

Miramar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw
65%
Albion FC or Miramar
72%
Draw or Miramar
63%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+
16%
Miramar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals
71%
Albion FC 2+ goals
35%
Albion FC 3+ goals
13%
Miramar 1+ goals
69%
Miramar 2+ goals
33%
Miramar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)
52%
Miramar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Miramar away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.23 + Miramar defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Miramar attack 1.30 + Albion FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Albion FC scores more
37%
level
28%
Miramar scores more
35%

Albion FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Albion FC 0–2 Miramar

Miramar beat Albion FC 2-0 in Segunda División on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Contador José Pedro Damiani in Montevideo.