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Minyor Radnevo vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
FT
5 – 0
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
6/1/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 34Stadion Minyor (Radnevo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Minyor Radnevo68%
×Draw20%
Levski Karlovo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minyor Radnevo
2.04
Levski Karlovo
0.74

Minyor Radnevo creates 176% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 136 away

creates per match

Minyor Radnevo
1.85
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

Minyor Radnevo
0.44
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minyor Radnevo ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Minyor Radnevo or draw
87%
Minyor Radnevo or Levski Karlovo
80%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
32%

Winning margin

Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
43%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
87%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
60%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
33%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
52%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
17%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
84%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minyor Radnevo at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.85 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.04

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Minyor Radnevo defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Minyor Radnevo scores more
68%
level
20%
Levski Karlovo scores more
13%

Minyor Radnevo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Minyor Radnevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minyor Radnevo vs Levski Karlovo

Minyor Radnevo beat Levski Karlovo 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor (Radnevo).